Week 9 Picks

Last week started out looking like I was going to miss all the games, but a late comeback left me at 3-3, and 2-4 against the spread thanks to two meaningless Mississippi St. td's that led to them covering by half a point, but still losing by 25.

Mississippi State @ Kentucky (-14) 12:30 PM ET
For better or worse MSU seems content to let true freshman Wesley Carroll develop as a starter. On the other side UK has a proven Sr. quarterback and Heisman contender in Andre' Woodson, and the Wildcats are through the tough portion of their schedule and look to keep their slim hopes of an SEC East championship alive.
Kentucky 35 Mississippi St. 13

Florida International @ Arkansas (-41) 2:00 PM ET
Arkansas finally got going last week during 44-8 romp in Oxford. Felix Jones and Darren McFadden combined for 211 yards on 37 carries against the Rebels and they look to continue their success against the winless Golden Panthers. FIU actually kept it close at the U, but also lost by 41 to MTSU, so who knows what they will do.
Arkansas 55 Florida International 10

Miami (OH) @ Vanderbilt (-13.5) 2:00 PM ET
You will never find a game with teams that had more different performances last week. The Commodores are coming off maybe the biggest win in school history and can't afford a letdown. The RedHawks just lost to Temple, enough said.
Vanderbilt 30 Miami (OH) 10

Florida (-7.5) vs. Georgia @ Jacksonville 3:30 PM ET
After beating Kentucky last week, the Gators now control their own destiny in the east, and if they win out a spot in the National Championship is not impossible. Georgia is a team headed in the opposite direction, in their last two games they got blown out at UT and barely escaped Nashville in a game they should have lost. Matthew Stafford has shown very little improvement this year, with only the Alabama game showing any real promise.
Florida 27 Georgia 13

Mississippi @ Auburn (-18) 6:00 PM ET
I keep expecting Ole' Miss' great recruiting classes to show up on Saturdays, but week after week they disappoint. As good as Auburn's defense is, their offense can struggle at times. Don't expect the game to ever be in doubt, but I don't see Auburn covering the high spread.
Auburn 23 Mississippi 10

South Carolina @ Tennessee (-2.5) 7:45 PM ET
How UT could be favored after last week debacle is amazing and speaks to how much respect you lose by losing at home to Vandy. One week after being #6 in the country, USC is now underdogs to a team that lost by 24 a week ago. Apparently Steve Spurriers rant about how overrated his team was swayed some people, but now they are a little underrated. The Gamecock defense remains one of the best in the SEC and UT's is one of the worst.
South Carolina 17 Tennessee 10

Overall:
7-5 Straight Up
5-7 Against the Spread

Week 8 Picks

Last week, my first picking games, went OK, 4-2 overall and 3-3 against the spread. This weeks looks a little different as the lines are all over the place as opposed to last weeks somewhat consistent 7 point spreads.

Tennessee (-1) @ Alabama
As the last blog post shows, I really like UT right now and their run to the front of the SEC East starts this week. Alabama was lucky to beat Houston at home two weeks ago and needed a blown call at the end of last weeks game at Ole' Miss to escape Oxford with a W. Tennessee should win this border battle somewhat easily.
Tennessee 30 Alabama 17

Vanderbilt @ South Carolina (-13.5)
Vandy is coming off a heart breaker last week at home against UGA. Now the Commodores are desperate for wins in their quest to get to 6 and be bowl eligible. Unfortunately the stink on the road and South Carolina has been rolling lately. The gamecocks better not be looking ahead to next Saturday nights showdown in Knoxville though, because VU could possibly pull the upset. Don't count on Spurrier letting his team look ahead.
South Carolina 31 Vanderbilt 10

Arkansas (-5) @ Mississippi
Like I said last week when I predicted Ole' Miss to knock off Alabama at home, they play much better in Oxford. And as noted above, they should have won last week and were a blown (or not according to SEC head of officials) pass interference call from having a shot to at least tie the Crimson Tide. Arkansas just cannot score at all and even though Mississippi's D is not Auburns, they should be able to contain Jones and McFadden enough to win this battle of the only two winless teams in the SEC
Mississippi 20 Arkansas 17

Florida (-6.5) @ Kentucky
ESPN College Gameday travels to Lexington for the first time ever probably to watch as Andre' Woodson tries to follow up last weeks huge win over LSU with an equally huge win over the Gators. Florida looks to bounce back after back-to-back losses. This is likely an SEC East eliminator for both teams as it would give UF a third conference loss and the Wildcats would lose tiebreakers to both their main competitors. Somehow the UK offensive line held its own against LSU, perhaps due to Woodson's audibling on half the plays, don't expect them to hold up again.
Florida 41 Kentucky 24

Mississippi State @ West Virginia (-25.5)
Like South Carolina last week, MSU hits the road in the middle of conference play to play a non-conference foe. Unlike South Carolina last week Mississippi State will not win. West Virginia is no North Carolina and MSU is no USC. Winning this game is pretty unrealistic for the Bulldogs and keeping it close would be a real moral victory for Sly Crooms squad.
West Virginia 42 Mississippi State 13

Auburn @ Louisiana State (-10)
If Auburn's offense could match its defense they would be national title contenders, as it is they'll need to win this one to stay in the SEC West race. Auburn has held its last two opponents to 7 points and last week they held Darren McFadden and Felix Jones to a combined 85 yards on 23 carries. LSU, despite losing last week is still squarely in the national championship hunt and Baton Rouge at night is probably the most difficult place to play in the country. Auburn's tough defense and LSU's mistake prone offense should keep it close
Louisiana State 13 Auburn 7

Week 7 Picks

Its a week of home dogs in the SEC, as Arkansas is the only home team favored.

Alabama (-6.5) @ Mississippi 12:30 PM ET
Ole' Miss actually plays a lot better at home than on the road, most recently giving UF a scare and blanking La Tech, 24-0. After starting the season strong, 'Bama is just 1-2 in its last three, losing to Georgia at home and FSU in Jacksonville. Look for Mississippi to come up with the big win that has been eluding them.
Mississippi 20 Alabama 17

#25 Tennessee (-7) @ Mississippi State 2:30 PM ET
Quite frankly I have no idea how MSU wins games, but I expect it to stop with UT, West Virginia, and Kentucky coming up on the schedule. The Mississippi St. QB situation is a complete mess, true freshman Wesley Carroll gets his first start, with Michael Henig expected to play, neither of whom inspires any confidence at all. Tennessee may be extremely inconsistent and the MSU defense is not bad, but this should still be a cakewalk for the Volunteers.
Tennessee 28 Mississippi State 10

#1 LSU (-9.5) @ #17 Kentucky 3:30 PM ET
Kentucky really struggled blocking South Carolina last week, leading to two Andre Woodson fumbles that were returned for touchdowns. If they thought that was tough, they can get ready for a fun Saturday afternoon trying to block Glenn Dorsey, Ty Jackson and company. Look for at least one defensive touchdown, as LSU continues to roll along towards a potential rematch with either USC or Florida in the SEC Championship.
LSU 31 Kentucky 13

#7 South Carolina (-7.5) @ North Carolina 3:30 PM ET
An awkward mid-season non-conference game pits the fast rising Gamecocks against a UNC team that has played better in recent weeks, knocking off the U last week and playing Va. Tech close on the road two weeks ago. USC comes into the game averaging only 229 pass yards/game and North Carolina can't run the ball at all, not a recipe for success for Butch Davis' squad. A program on the rise the Tar Heels will be a more formidable foe in a few years, for right now though, expect South Carolina to win fairly easily.
South Carolina 27 North Carolina 10

#24 Georgia (-7) @ Vanderbilt 6:00 PM ET
Chris Nickson's continued failure in big games has left Vandy's QB situation in doubt. Coach Bobby Johnson will make a gametime decision between Nickson and backup Mackenzi Adams. Whoever starts the Commodore defense will have to be much better than it has been. Georgia looks to rebound from an embarassing 35-14 demolition in Knoxville last week, that really wasn't even that close. Expect the Bulldogs to come out firing angry about both last weeks loss and being picked as homecoming opponents.
Georgia 34 Vanderbilt 14

#22 Auburn @ Arkansas (-3) 7:45 PM ET
Auburn has really played pretty well so far this season, the loss at home to Mississippi St. not withstanding, and even better the last few weeks. Recently everything has been clicking,the running game has been rolling with the return of Brad Lester and the continuing good work of Ben Tate. Same story in Fayetteville, McFadden and Jones, Jones and McFadden as the country's most one-dimensional offense will struggle to put points on the board against Auburns fast defense. Brandon Cox has played three very efficient games in a row and the Tigers look to be heading towards a showdown with LSU next weekend that will decide the SEC West.
Auburn 24 Arkansas 17