Week 9 Picks

Last week started out looking like I was going to miss all the games, but a late comeback left me at 3-3, and 2-4 against the spread thanks to two meaningless Mississippi St. td's that led to them covering by half a point, but still losing by 25.

Mississippi State @ Kentucky (-14) 12:30 PM ET
For better or worse MSU seems content to let true freshman Wesley Carroll develop as a starter. On the other side UK has a proven Sr. quarterback and Heisman contender in Andre' Woodson, and the Wildcats are through the tough portion of their schedule and look to keep their slim hopes of an SEC East championship alive.
Kentucky 35 Mississippi St. 13

Florida International @ Arkansas (-41) 2:00 PM ET
Arkansas finally got going last week during 44-8 romp in Oxford. Felix Jones and Darren McFadden combined for 211 yards on 37 carries against the Rebels and they look to continue their success against the winless Golden Panthers. FIU actually kept it close at the U, but also lost by 41 to MTSU, so who knows what they will do.
Arkansas 55 Florida International 10

Miami (OH) @ Vanderbilt (-13.5) 2:00 PM ET
You will never find a game with teams that had more different performances last week. The Commodores are coming off maybe the biggest win in school history and can't afford a letdown. The RedHawks just lost to Temple, enough said.
Vanderbilt 30 Miami (OH) 10

Florida (-7.5) vs. Georgia @ Jacksonville 3:30 PM ET
After beating Kentucky last week, the Gators now control their own destiny in the east, and if they win out a spot in the National Championship is not impossible. Georgia is a team headed in the opposite direction, in their last two games they got blown out at UT and barely escaped Nashville in a game they should have lost. Matthew Stafford has shown very little improvement this year, with only the Alabama game showing any real promise.
Florida 27 Georgia 13

Mississippi @ Auburn (-18) 6:00 PM ET
I keep expecting Ole' Miss' great recruiting classes to show up on Saturdays, but week after week they disappoint. As good as Auburn's defense is, their offense can struggle at times. Don't expect the game to ever be in doubt, but I don't see Auburn covering the high spread.
Auburn 23 Mississippi 10

South Carolina @ Tennessee (-2.5) 7:45 PM ET
How UT could be favored after last week debacle is amazing and speaks to how much respect you lose by losing at home to Vandy. One week after being #6 in the country, USC is now underdogs to a team that lost by 24 a week ago. Apparently Steve Spurriers rant about how overrated his team was swayed some people, but now they are a little underrated. The Gamecock defense remains one of the best in the SEC and UT's is one of the worst.
South Carolina 17 Tennessee 10

Overall:
7-5 Straight Up
5-7 Against the Spread

Week 8 Power Rankings

The way things are going in college football this year, putting a team at the top of a set of rankings basically seals their fate as the next upset victim. Last weekend was no different as the #2 team in the SEC, South Carolina stunningly got knocked off at home by Vanderbilt. I think however, there should be some stability at the top as LSU is done with the difficult part of its schedule and shouldn't really have much trouble, outside of maybe Alabama, making it to Atlanta with only one loss.

Favorites

1. LSU (7-1, 4-1)
The Tigers were able to get through the tough part of their schedule (UF, @ UK, Auburn) only dropping one game and are now in position to not only win the SEC, but perhaps the national championship as well.

2. Florida (5-2, 3-2)
The east is a mess, with everybody having at least two losses and only Vandy having three. Despite this parity, there is a clear favorite as UF established themselves with a big win in Lexington.

Still Alive

3. Kentucky (6-2, 2-2)
A lot of things would need to break Kentucky's way to win the east, but there is little doubt in my mind they are the third or fourth best team in the SEC. Andre' Woodson is proving himself to be a Heisman contender with greatness every week.

4. Auburn (5-3, 3-2)
OK, so Auburn may have little to no shot to win the west and go to the SEC Championship game, but after beating Florida on the road and playing LSU tough in Baton Rouge, they are clearly a top 4 team in the SEC.

5. Alabama (6-2, 4-1)
After this weekends beat down of UT, Alabama has put itself in position to make things interesting in the west. Yes, their two toughest tests are still on the schedule, but they control their own destiny and Saban has an extra week to prepare for LSU, so you know he'll have something special lined up for them.

6. South Carolina (6-2, 3-2)
No, its not true losing at home to Vanderbilt automatically eliminates you from title contention. Despite this weekends loss, the Gamecocks control their own destiny and all of a sudden. that trip to Knoxville doesn't look so tough anymore.

7. Georgia (5-2, 3-2)
The Bulldogs are really not very good and have a very tough schedule, but if they can turn it around and win out they will likely represent the east in Atlanta.

Fighting for Bowl Eligibility

8. Arkansas (4-3, 1-3)
Arkansas has the worst SEC record of this next tier of teams, but they haven't been blown out and have blown somebody else out, which separates them from UT and Vandy.

9. Vanderbilt (4-3, 2-3)
The Commodores have a great chance to make a bowl for the first time in a quarter century, especially if they keep playing the way they have the past two weeks and like they played in early season losses to Alabama and Auburn.

10. Tennessee (4-3, 2-2)
I was completely wrong about UT, immediately after my entry about not counting them out, they get absolutely destroyed at Alabama. UT is lucky to have Louisiana Lafayette still on the schedule or six wins would be extremely difficult and even with the Ragin' Cajuns as an automatic W they may not get there.

Mississippi Schools

11. Mississippi St. (4-4, 1-3)
12. Mississippi (2-6, 0-5)
Whats the difference, they both stink, as once again the Egg Bowl will be a battle for last place.

Weekend Thoughts

• I think we saw the two best quartbacks in the country battle it out in Lexington Saturday afternoon. No disrespect to Mike Hart, Matt Ryan, or anybody else, but at this point Tim Tebow and Andre' Woodson are probably the top two Heisman contenders. Woodson went 35-50 for 415 and 5 TD's with no interceptions and Tebow may have been even better, connecting on 18 of 26 throws for 256 and 4 touchdowns to no interceptions while also running for 78 yards and another TD.

• Mike Patrick and Todd Blackledge made a big deal about how the game clock would have ran out had Matt Flynn's pass fallen incomplete, however replays showed that Demetrius Byrd actually caught the ball with about 4 seconds left and if he had dropped it there likely would have been time to kick the FG. Still, give Les Miles credit for taking a shot at the end zone there when many other coaches would have just moved the ball to the middle of the field and relied on their kicker to win it.

• So much for my UT backing. The Volunteers basically went out and shat the bed on Saturday in Tuscaloosa. With a chance for sole possession of first in the SEC east, UT got another awful performance out of their defense. This is becoming somewhat of a trend in big games, as they have given up an average of 39.75 points in big games, and that includes holding UGA to 14 at home three weeks ago.

• Vandy has found a QB. In his first career start Mackenzi Adams played a great first half as the Commodores took a 17-0 first quarter lead and held on for the biggest victory maybe in school history. Replacing pre-season All-SEC third team QB Chris Nickson, who was benched due to poor play, Adams lead VU matched his career total of TD passes in the first quarter with two. If Adams continues to play well Vanderbilt could be headed for a bowl game for the first time since 1983.

• People should start listening to Steve Spurrier. Spurrier has been telling whoever would listen that his Gamecocks were overrated at 6-1 and #6 in the country. Turns out he was right.

• Thats the last upset I pick for Ole' Miss. After putting my confidence in them two weeks in a row and having them let me down twice and getting blown out this week, the Rebels will have to earn back the confidence I've lost in them.

Week 8 Picks

Last week, my first picking games, went OK, 4-2 overall and 3-3 against the spread. This weeks looks a little different as the lines are all over the place as opposed to last weeks somewhat consistent 7 point spreads.

Tennessee (-1) @ Alabama
As the last blog post shows, I really like UT right now and their run to the front of the SEC East starts this week. Alabama was lucky to beat Houston at home two weeks ago and needed a blown call at the end of last weeks game at Ole' Miss to escape Oxford with a W. Tennessee should win this border battle somewhat easily.
Tennessee 30 Alabama 17

Vanderbilt @ South Carolina (-13.5)
Vandy is coming off a heart breaker last week at home against UGA. Now the Commodores are desperate for wins in their quest to get to 6 and be bowl eligible. Unfortunately the stink on the road and South Carolina has been rolling lately. The gamecocks better not be looking ahead to next Saturday nights showdown in Knoxville though, because VU could possibly pull the upset. Don't count on Spurrier letting his team look ahead.
South Carolina 31 Vanderbilt 10

Arkansas (-5) @ Mississippi
Like I said last week when I predicted Ole' Miss to knock off Alabama at home, they play much better in Oxford. And as noted above, they should have won last week and were a blown (or not according to SEC head of officials) pass interference call from having a shot to at least tie the Crimson Tide. Arkansas just cannot score at all and even though Mississippi's D is not Auburns, they should be able to contain Jones and McFadden enough to win this battle of the only two winless teams in the SEC
Mississippi 20 Arkansas 17

Florida (-6.5) @ Kentucky
ESPN College Gameday travels to Lexington for the first time ever probably to watch as Andre' Woodson tries to follow up last weeks huge win over LSU with an equally huge win over the Gators. Florida looks to bounce back after back-to-back losses. This is likely an SEC East eliminator for both teams as it would give UF a third conference loss and the Wildcats would lose tiebreakers to both their main competitors. Somehow the UK offensive line held its own against LSU, perhaps due to Woodson's audibling on half the plays, don't expect them to hold up again.
Florida 41 Kentucky 24

Mississippi State @ West Virginia (-25.5)
Like South Carolina last week, MSU hits the road in the middle of conference play to play a non-conference foe. Unlike South Carolina last week Mississippi State will not win. West Virginia is no North Carolina and MSU is no USC. Winning this game is pretty unrealistic for the Bulldogs and keeping it close would be a real moral victory for Sly Crooms squad.
West Virginia 42 Mississippi State 13

Auburn @ Louisiana State (-10)
If Auburn's offense could match its defense they would be national title contenders, as it is they'll need to win this one to stay in the SEC West race. Auburn has held its last two opponents to 7 points and last week they held Darren McFadden and Felix Jones to a combined 85 yards on 23 carries. LSU, despite losing last week is still squarely in the national championship hunt and Baton Rouge at night is probably the most difficult place to play in the country. Auburn's tough defense and LSU's mistake prone offense should keep it close
Louisiana State 13 Auburn 7

Don't Sleep on UT

Recently many have been looking at the SEC East as a two horse race between Florida and South Carolina. Recent big wins by USC coupled with ridiculous offensive numbers and a heisman front runner at Florida have put the spotlight squarely on Columbia and Gainesville. However, there is a third team that may have the best chance to represent the east in Atlanta: Tennessee.

Overlooked thanks to a 1-2 start that included blowout losses at Cal and to Florida, UT has been playing well lately and their schedule sets up nicely for a late season run at the SEC East title. There is no question that Tennessee is not one of the nations elite teams, that was proved when they were manhandled 59-20 by UF, however they miss the two best teams in the west, LSU and Auburn and play four of their next five at home before ending the season at Kentucky. UT is also the only contender who doesn't have to play LSU and except for UK, this is basically an automatic L. The absence of this loss means that the Vols can suffer a letdown this week at Alabama or at home to Vandy or Arkansas and still win the East as long as they take care of business at home against USC and @ Kentucky.

I know that sounds like a lot to ask Phillip Fulmer's bunch, but South Carolina comes to Knoxville, where the Vols are 3-0 including a 35-14 demolition of UGA that wasn't even that close. The Kentucky game also may seem tough, but remember before last weeks huge win vs. LSU, the only good team they had played was South Carolina and that resulted in a 15 point loss. On top of the easy schedule, Tennessee is also starting to play really good football. QB Eric Ainge is quietly putting together a great season, completing two-thirds of his passes while throwing for 12 TD's and only 3 interceptions so far. After an injury plagued 2006, RB Arian Foster has come back strong averaging 5.5 ypc while running for 7 touchdowns.

A quick look around to the other contenders shows that each of them would be lucky to end up with only two losses. Florida is already at two and still must travel to South Carolina, Kentucky and Georgia. South Carolina looks to be the favorite right now, but they still must go to UT and beat Florida, neither of which is a sure thing. Another overlooked team is Georgia, but unlike UT the schedule does them no favors, with upcoming games against Florida, Auburn and Kentucky, all of which they must win the make the title game. Finally Kentucky's schedule may be the hardest, they are in the midst of a three week stretch where they must play @ South Carolina, then LSU and Florida at home. They are 1-1 so far, but after facing UF this weekend, they will still have games @ UGA and at home vs. UT, not to mention a potential upset in Nashville, where Vanderbilt plays much better than on the road.

Despite a lack of attention, don't be surprised if the under-the-radar Volunteers are representing SEC East in Atlanta in December.

BCS Proves SEC Supremacy

With the first publication of the BCS standings this weekend, it has once again become apparent that the SEC is far and away the best conference in the land.

When Les Miles called some members of the Pac-10 “juggernauts” before the season it was in jest, trying to point out that his LSU tigers were going to play a much harder conference schedule. He was right. The BCS standings have seven SEC teams in the top 25, by far the most of any conference. The Big-12 is second with four.

Perhaps more impressively is the how favorably the computers look at the top of the SEC. Three of the four best teams in the conference get big boosts by the computer rankings. LSU, South Carolina, and Kentucky are rated fifth, eighth, and 13^th by the coaches, but second, third, and fourth by the computers. Auburn also receives a big boost improving from 19^th in the human polls to 17^th in the BCS based on a ranking of 12 in the computers. These rankings are based more on strength of schedule than anything else, proving that when objectively looking at the best teams in the country, the SEC sticks out.

The Pac-10 looked early on to be the SEC's biggest competition for the title of top conference, with USC, Cal, and Oregon all playing well, but all three have lost lately and as opposed to the SEC, the computers do not look kindly on these west coast teams. Despite all three being in the top 10 of the Harris and Coaches polls, none cracks the top 12 in the computer rankings.

These early rankings should give hope to the top squads in the SEC that the season is not over. Clearly a one loss SEC team would be taken over one loss teams from anywhere else and perhaps over an undefeated team. LSU, UK, and USC should all be taken seriously as not only conference champs, but as potential national champs.

Week 7 Power Rankings

Seven weeks into the season and it’s still impossible to figure out this crazy conference. Just when LSU appeared to be on its way to the title game, Andre Woodson and the Wildcats came out and reminded the folks in Lexington that basketball season doesn’t start for another month.

Coming up with the power rankings this week proved to be more challenging than usual, probably because teams have been so up and down. While the order may be up for debate, I think I’ve grouped the teams in the proper categories.

LSU remains No. 1 based on the fact that they were on the road and that they beat South Carolina, who rolled over the Wildcats. This weekend should be telling as Florida plays at Kentucky.

Two teams to watch out for are Tennessee and Auburn. Despite sluggish starts, both squads are playing well, and with just one conference loss apiece, remain in the hunt for the conference title.

I’m not as sold on Georgia and Alabama. The Crimson Tide were lucky to take down Ole Miss and the Bulldogs needed a Cassen Jackson-Garrison fumble late in the fourth quarter to beat a Vanderbilt team that got pounded by Auburn.

Perhaps the hardest part of the rankings was coming up with the order of the final four teams, all of which deserve to be last. Arkansas is winless in the SEC and despite playing at home with two stud running backs, couldn’t find the end zone against Auburn until the last minute. The Commodores bounced back in a big way against Georgia, but they still found a way to lose so it’s tough to give them too much credit. Meanwhile, Mississippi State got smacked by Tennessee and Ole Miss came up short against Bama.

Finally, onto the rankings…Disagree? Let us know.

CREAM OF THE CROP

1. LSU (6-1, 3-1)
In the craziest college football season I can remember, the Tigers still have a strong chance of playing in the national title game, which means they need to prepare themselves for a very good Auburn team this weekend.

2. South Carolina (6-1, 3-1)
Steve Spurrier has never lost to Vanderbilt. Things won’t change Saturday when the Commodores head to Columbia.

3. Kentucky (6-1, 2-1)
How ridiculous is it that Andre Woodson apparently checked off on half of the Wildcats’ plays against LSU?

4. Florida (4-2, 2-2)
There’s no doubt that the Gators’ make-or-break game comes this weekend in Lexington.

DARKHORSES

5. Tennessee (4-2, 2-1)
Don’t look now but the Vols have won three straight games.

6. Auburn (5-2, 3-1)
While their offensive performance against Arkansas was pitiful, the Tiger defense is pretty darn good. It should be a great one in Baton Rouge on Saturday.

HOT AND COLD

7. Georgia (5-2, 3-2)
Two things about Georgia: 1) Quarterback Matthew Stafford, much like the team itself, is hard to figure out. 2) Freshman running back Knowshon Moreno is going to be a stud.

8. Alabama (5-2, 3-1)
How much would you pay to see Saban and Orgeron go head-to-head in a steel cage match? I’d say at least a hundred.

BOTTOM FEEDERS

9. Arkansas (3-3, 0-3)
“We have to score more points,” said coach Houston Nutt. You think?

10. Vanderbilt (3-3, 1-2)
A few things about the Commodores: 1) Quarterback Mackenzi Adams give them the best chance to win. 2) CB/WR/KR D.J. Moore is a pleasure to watch. 3) Where are they going to get their sixth win?

11. Mississippi State (4-3, 1-3)
Sadly, a bowl game isn’t out of the question for the Bulldogs.

12. Ole Miss (2-5, 0-4)
For the record, my money would be on Coach O in the cage match.

Week 7 Picks

Its a week of home dogs in the SEC, as Arkansas is the only home team favored.

Alabama (-6.5) @ Mississippi 12:30 PM ET
Ole' Miss actually plays a lot better at home than on the road, most recently giving UF a scare and blanking La Tech, 24-0. After starting the season strong, 'Bama is just 1-2 in its last three, losing to Georgia at home and FSU in Jacksonville. Look for Mississippi to come up with the big win that has been eluding them.
Mississippi 20 Alabama 17

#25 Tennessee (-7) @ Mississippi State 2:30 PM ET
Quite frankly I have no idea how MSU wins games, but I expect it to stop with UT, West Virginia, and Kentucky coming up on the schedule. The Mississippi St. QB situation is a complete mess, true freshman Wesley Carroll gets his first start, with Michael Henig expected to play, neither of whom inspires any confidence at all. Tennessee may be extremely inconsistent and the MSU defense is not bad, but this should still be a cakewalk for the Volunteers.
Tennessee 28 Mississippi State 10

#1 LSU (-9.5) @ #17 Kentucky 3:30 PM ET
Kentucky really struggled blocking South Carolina last week, leading to two Andre Woodson fumbles that were returned for touchdowns. If they thought that was tough, they can get ready for a fun Saturday afternoon trying to block Glenn Dorsey, Ty Jackson and company. Look for at least one defensive touchdown, as LSU continues to roll along towards a potential rematch with either USC or Florida in the SEC Championship.
LSU 31 Kentucky 13

#7 South Carolina (-7.5) @ North Carolina 3:30 PM ET
An awkward mid-season non-conference game pits the fast rising Gamecocks against a UNC team that has played better in recent weeks, knocking off the U last week and playing Va. Tech close on the road two weeks ago. USC comes into the game averaging only 229 pass yards/game and North Carolina can't run the ball at all, not a recipe for success for Butch Davis' squad. A program on the rise the Tar Heels will be a more formidable foe in a few years, for right now though, expect South Carolina to win fairly easily.
South Carolina 27 North Carolina 10

#24 Georgia (-7) @ Vanderbilt 6:00 PM ET
Chris Nickson's continued failure in big games has left Vandy's QB situation in doubt. Coach Bobby Johnson will make a gametime decision between Nickson and backup Mackenzi Adams. Whoever starts the Commodore defense will have to be much better than it has been. Georgia looks to rebound from an embarassing 35-14 demolition in Knoxville last week, that really wasn't even that close. Expect the Bulldogs to come out firing angry about both last weeks loss and being picked as homecoming opponents.
Georgia 34 Vanderbilt 14

#22 Auburn @ Arkansas (-3) 7:45 PM ET
Auburn has really played pretty well so far this season, the loss at home to Mississippi St. not withstanding, and even better the last few weeks. Recently everything has been clicking,the running game has been rolling with the return of Brad Lester and the continuing good work of Ben Tate. Same story in Fayetteville, McFadden and Jones, Jones and McFadden as the country's most one-dimensional offense will struggle to put points on the board against Auburns fast defense. Brandon Cox has played three very efficient games in a row and the Tigers look to be heading towards a showdown with LSU next weekend that will decide the SEC West.
Auburn 24 Arkansas 17

Week 6 Power Rankings

After six weeks of football, LSU is the unquestioned class of the league. But, after that, it's anyone's guess. Disagree with the rankings? Let us know.

1. LSU (6-0, 3-0 SEC)
It took a lot of guts for coach Les Miles to keep his field-goal unit on the sidelines late in the fourth quarter against the Gators.

2. South Carolina (5-1, 3-1)
Who would have ever guessed that freshman Chris Smelley would outplay Heisman hopeful Andre Woodson?

3. Florida (4-2, 2-2)
The Gators’ ability to run the football against LSU’s vaunted front four was very impressive.

4. Kentucky (5-1, 1-1)
After losing to South Carolina, the Wildcats’ reward? Home contests against LSU and Florida the next two weeks.

5. Tennessee (3-2, 1-1)
The Vols’ romp of Georgia caught everyone by surprise, but considering their only losses have come to Florida and California, maybe it shouldn’t have.

6. Auburn (4-2, 2-1)
How in the world did these guys lose to Mississippi State?

7. Georgia (4-2, 2-2)
If the Bulldogs lose to Vandy two years in a row…actually, never mind, have you seen the Dores play lately?

8. Alabama (4-2, 2-1)
It hasn’t taken the Crimson Tide faithful long to get under the Nicktator’s skin.

9. Arkansas (3-2, 0-2)
If the Razorbacks go 6-6, I wonder if Darren McFadden can still win the Heisman. Come back, Mitch Mustain.

10. Mississippi State (4-2, 1-2)
How in the world did these guys beat Auburn?

11. Vanderbilt (3-2, 1-2)
Nobody expected Chris Nickson to regress in year two as a starter, but that’s exactly what happened. Let’s give Adams a shot.

12. Ole Miss (2-4, 0-3)
I doubt Coach O wants a book written about this season.

QB Problems Around the SEC

These days in the SEC it seems as though if you don't have a Heisman contender behind center you have a question mark.

Aside from Tim Tebow at Florida and Andre Woodson at Kentucky there are few sure things playing quarterback in the south. The biggest mess of them all may be in Starkville, where three quarterbacks have thrown at least 35 passes so far this season and none more than 70. Original starter Michael Henig sports an atrocious 1:9 touchdown to interception ratio while completing under 50% of his passes. Fellow junior, Josh Riddell leads the team in TD passes with two, but he is also completing less than half his throws, and as a JUCO transfer his other college opportunities included noted football powerhouses, UCONN, Idaho, and Western Illinois. Which brings us to the new starter, as reported in yesterdays Clarion-Ledger, Wesley Carroll. Carroll is an example at how bad things are at Mississippi St. The true freshman was rated as just the 69^th best QB recruit and only two stars by scout.com. How this trio is 4-2 (2-1), including a win at Auburn, is beyond me.

In Nashville, Chris Nickson was tabbed by many as a possible breakout performer this year and potential All-SEC player. Instead he has played terribly in both big games for the Commodores so far this season. In Vandy's two biggest games so far this season against Alabama and at Aubun, Nickson has gone a combined 10-34 for 98 yards and a pick, opening the door for Mackenzi (McSlizzy) Adams to possibly get the start against UGA this weekend. Coach Bobby Johnson emphasized this in his news conference after the Auburn game last weekend, “there's a chance that we'll look at making a change at quarterback.” Whoever starts will likely be in for a tough afternoon as Georgia looks to avenge last seasons loss at home against the commodores.

Despite setting single season records in passing yards, touchdown passes, completions and attempts last year, John Parker Wilson is catching some heat and even coach Nick Saban is sending mixed signals. In todays Birmingham News, Saban both defends and criticizes his QB. Despite all this, Wilson's job security is probably not in doubt. However, this is more due to the fact that his backup is a redshirt freshman, who has thrown 9 passes, all in a 52-6 rout of East Carolina. On top of that, McElroy only started for one year in high school and is clearly not ready to play in the SEC.

Though they could be headed to an SEC East championship, as long as Steve Spurrier is head coach, there will always be instability at the quarterback position at South Carolina. Despite years of winning and contending for SEC and National championships, unless you were Danny Wuerffel circa 1996 you were never good enough in Spurrier's mind. So now we're supposed to think that because he's played a few good games redshirt freshman Chris Smelley is safe from a competition with former starter Blake Mitchell, who's biding his time on the bench. The guess here is Spurrier's bunch is a home loss against Vandy from pulling the trigger on yet another QB switch.